By Nightvision for the Saker Blog

Firstly, the biggest news at the forefront is that the Mariupol state of affairs appears to be nearing a possible decision. We reported last time that one prominent source said Azovstal would be fully resolved by four/30 (today), while Sladkov said days ago that Azov had about 9 days of nutrient left, which by now would put them at maybe 6 days or less, by those estimations.

We too reported that negotiators had arrived and were settling in to the modest villages around Mariupol. At present today there is a large, full blown Un / Crimson Cross functioning under way to evacuate the civilians in the Azovstal manufacturing plant.

https://twitter.com/Cyberspec1/condition/1520315875865235456

https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/condition/1520382581811953665

Now every bit many have seen a family unit was the get-go to leave the Azovstal factory yesterday, and now today it'due south being reported past Novosti that 25 people have been released, including 6 children. The interesting thing is that the first family released said at that place were "seventy+ others" left in the bunkers, though I'thousand unclear if they meant 70 people or 70 families (presuming it's total people). This is in stark contrast to Azov's claim that over 'thousand' civilians were hiding beneath the mill. It's clear that Azov likely lied to inflate the numbers for obvious reasons.

With the UN and Redcross involved, it's unclear what the terms of the current negotiations are. Here'south i study:

"In Bezymenny (Novoazvsky commune of the DPR), negotiations are underway regarding the evacuation of civilians from the territory of Azostal. Representatives of the United nations and the IWC are participating.
Earlier, the Kremlin has already outlined its position on these negotiations – the evacuation of civilians can be easily carried out, the master obstacles to the evacuation are the Nazis themselves, who practise not want to let go of the homo shield.
Nobody is going to let the Nazis go, at that place will exist no humanitarian corridors for them.
The but hazard for them is to surrender."

You tin can see dozens of evacuation buses there: https://twitter.com/uasupport999/condition/1520465607422091264

A rough calculation of ~xxx buses, with maybe ~xxx-50 people per bus could exist enough for over 1000+ people, and then either the original Azov civilian estimates were correct OR the UN is really hoping to evacuate their Azov terrorists too. At the moment Azov is pleading to at least evacuate the wounded and the wives/families of trapped Azov have been rallying now for the release of their militants along with the civilians as well:

https://twitter.com/uasupport999/condition/1520434237366845440

Anything could happen only at that place'south a hazard that the entire Azovstal saga could end in the next 24-hour interval or two. The plant appears surrounded as Russian forces accept captured everything but the main complex where they're all hiding, and though the remaining Azov/marine militants are said to be numbered in the 2000 range, upwards of 600+ or more than of them are said to be wounded or incapacitated.

Head of the DPR Denis Pushilin believes it will all end very soon. He has stated: '"Very before long, I really count on information technology, the situation with Azovstal in Mariupol will be completed, and we will see a big number of mercenaries there,"– he said on the air of Channel One.'

Pushilin also appear large structure sites in Mariupol will start as before long as Azovstal is done, and DPR spokesman Basurin said that a park in memory of those killed in Mariupol might exist laid out on the site of the former Azovstal factory circuitous.

Though videos however come out showing some Mariupol fighting, we were told that most of them are as much equally 10 days quondam due to the timed release method of data so that the enemy does non see current RF troop movements, then the fighting likely has already ended, though Azov/Arestovich nevertheless merits that their fighters conduct "sorties" above ground "when they are able to" – whatsoever that means.

With that said, 1 amusing video was released of close quarter fighting which shows Russian marines storming a edifice while attempting to communicate with some of the foreign mercenaries trapped at that place in both English and French:

https://www.bitchute.com/video/7Fw9mrmqmh0D/

And on the topic of mercenaries, in that location's been a deluge of new updates.

Not only was some other British merc named Andrew Hill captured and interrogated:

https://world wide web.bitchute.com/video/O7UxnZSugNA1/

Merely the first American mercenary expiry was announced:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/22-twelvemonth-onetime-marine-turned-mercenary-becomes-1st-american-die-fighting-russia-ukraine

While Russia as well captured two British NGO workers well-nigh Zaporizhzhia:

https://www.bbc.com/news/u.k.-61268817

And British press is at present reporting on the death of Scott Sibley, a mercenary nosotros reported on last time:

https://www.bbc.com/news/great britain-61260402

Also, in that location was one unconfirmed report that said:

1h

" #Of import Russian Spetsnaz unit in #Kherson captured 2 Russian-speaking British #SAS operatives on Apr 21, after a leak of their position from #Kiev . They were conducting recon for #London (these are not mercenaries). Leak suspected from #Zelensky 'south part or #Ukrainian MFA."

This is not unbelievable as we've already reported final fourth dimension that SAS is openly working in Kiev and elsewhere.

A Georgian mercenary fighting for Azov was not so fortunate.

https://twitter.com/DonbasTh/condition/1520126930208628737

His before and after:

And a Danish mercenary was reported killed

https://twitter.com/bigrussianshop/status/1520184545466896384

"When luck refused the "soldier of fortune" , a 25-year-quondam Danish mercenary died in Ukraine, where he fought as part of a foreign legion. It happened in Nikolaev, the war machine commander of TV channel Tv 2 Rasmus Tantoldt reported."

Some are in fact saying information technology's this guy, but in that location is no confirmation:

https://www.bitchute.com/video/VH96N8utEXJg/

Now to segue to some of the developments from last time regarding the possible upcoming NATO escalations in Ukraine. Russian intel agency head Naryshkin, who issued the statement final fourth dimension regarding Poland'southward planned incursion has also now stated that, "plans to deploy a Polish "peacekeeping contingent" in the western part of Ukraine is non a version, but intelligence information obtained from several reliable sources, the Foreign Intelligence Service explained."

In brusque, he'southward saying this is non speculation but an accurate report based on many sources.

Also: "Military adept Yuriy Kotenok talks near plans to bring Polish, Romanian and other armed services contingents to Ukraine nether the fable of "exercises". The conclusion has already been fabricated. BTG will be covered from the air. Their task is to forbid Russia from completing the operation to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine."

Unfortunately this is for Russian speakers only as in that location's no subtitles here: https://bastyon.com/index?5=2000ace73f9745dd7511ac5dccdee93a635aafe127381eaf08e5a54d8db2a12a&video=1&ref=PARV591XENALBB5ApkR7WcQPhEZtLHfi2A

And a Ukrainian account has stated: "Our source in the OP said that the General Staff has already prepared a armed forces campaign to neutralize the Russian grouping in Transnistria."

While Deputy Chairman of the Russian State Duma Commission on Defense force, Full general Zavarzin, "called for missile strikes on headquarters in Kyiv and Lvov."

And here's i analyst's take:

"@milchronicles

A strike forcefulness of NATO countries near the borders of Ukraine and Belarus – what is information technology for? Is information technology actually about an ordinary peacekeeping mission?

In light of the latest information virtually the aspirations of Poland and other NATO members, several questions arise. Firstly, what contingent is now formed on the eastern borders of the bloc, and secondly, why are all these forces being accumulated?

It is impossible to accurately assess the grouping of NATO countries, drawn to the borders of the Commonwealth of Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova and Russia, having only information from open sources.

Yet, from what is known, a total contingent of 50,000 to 100,000 people can be inferred. This includes units deployed by Poland, and the American contingent, and units of various NATO countries deployed in the framework of exercises in the Baltic states. There is also information about a serious Romanian group in the Moldovan direction. Just as we wrote earlier, combat aircraft are also existence transferred to Europe. In the shortest possible time, the size of the NATO contingent can be doubled.

NATO's ultimate strategy on this result is currently unclear, but several options could be considered. Firstly, this can exist done for a bland intimidation of Russia and an try to put pressure on the form of a special functioning in Ukraine, and secondly, in the West they perfectly sympathize that Ukraine every bit a country no longer exists and see its futurity on the principle of occupation sectors. And the tertiary choice is the most terrible, but the least probable: NATO decided to become all the way and, if lend-charter and hybrid warfare exercise not stop the Russians, then regular units of Western countries will step in. This, of class, is a 100% threat of the employ of nuclear weapons. It looks utopian, simply in 2022 everything is possible."

And from Colonel Cassad:

"The main topic that worries many today is the adoption past the US Congress of the lend-lease program for Ukraine. Delivery of big batches of modern weapons is expected soon. The war will reach a new level, because at present we will too have to fight with the American war machine industry. Deliveries of American heavy weapons are expected, including F-sixteen aircraft. Today we wrote that Ukraine is already preparing pilots for these machines. Here you need to empathise once and for all, nosotros are at war with NATO, where Ukraine is merely cheap service personnel and cannon fodder.

Also on the Belarusian-Smooth border, there is a transfer of a shock grouping of troops from Poland. The answer to this was the sending of Belarusian units to strengthen the border."

And John Kirby yesterday: 'U.s. Defense Printing Secretary John Kirby:

"Today I tin denote that the United States has begun training the Ukrainian armed services to use fundamental weapons at The states military bases in Germany."'

On the topic of Lend Lease, it became a curious discovery that on the official U.Southward. Congress website, the date of the submission of Lend Lease to Congress was seen equally 1/19/22.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/3522

https://www.rt.com/news/554747-senate-lend-charter-ukraine-advance/

Then how is it that it was proposed a full calendar month before Russia's invasion on two/24?

There are more military transfers existence rushed to Ukraine: https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1520170505516503040

https://www.bitchute.com/video/DfBsSaP8wIYC/

And reports like the following:

"Kiev secretly sent Kharkiv cadets to the United States to learn to fly the F-16, which will soon enter service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine nether lend-charter Kiev decided in accelerate to retrain its pilots for the NATO fleet. As it became known to Readovka, the cadets of the Kharkiv College War machine School were sent to 1 of the European NATO countries and to the United States in early on February for emergency retraining in the management of American F-16s. The cadets were taken directly from the 4th year classes. All of them were transported in complete secrecy. Thus, it is more than likely that NATO, together with Kiev, knew about the imminent deployment of a special operation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and tried to work ahead of the curve. The law passed the day earlier by the The states Congress authorizing the lend-lease of heavy weapons to Ukraine evidently involves the supply, among other things, of American F-16 fighters. In that location is also data that the lend-charter announced by the United States was launched solely to legalize the transfer of F-16 fighters to Ukraine. https://t.me/readovkanews/32369 "

And:

From a Ukrainian channel: "The Pentagon has begun planning armed forces operations for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Donbas to contain the Russian army. The Ukrainian General Staff permanently hosts several dozen NATO generals in the status of war machine directorate who participate in the discussion and decision-making on key issues."

"The General Staff permanently hosts several dozen NATO generals in the status of military directorate who participate in the discussion and decision-making on all primal issues."

So all of this brings me to the following big topic. Which is that there is a lot of chat revolving around how the Russian SMO is going, with many people unable to reconcile the two opposing sides who both claim they are winning easily. Understandably this creates a strange paradoxical dichotomy where each side says they are cracking the other, and each side posts material that conveniently reflects their stated 'strategy' as show that everything is in fact going to plan.

i.e. Russia posts its advances and mass destruction of AFU units and says this is clear evidence of ongoing victory. And AFU posts its retreats and says that these are all strategic retreats and that Russia is in fact being both bled and led into a trap from which they will never emerge.

So I wanted to address this with some new textile that can shed light and contextualize the U.Southward./Ukraine's overall grand strategy.

In brusk, it is this: it is becoming increasingly articulate that the 1000 strategy is to slowly abandon the Donbas, but in the process, slow downwards and compunction the Russian forces as much equally possible, while simultaneously reconstituting a massively armed new NATO-standard ground forces in the West.

Not only has NATO and U.S. both now released statements that they are readying for a "long war" of up to x years in Ukraine, only there are reports like the following:

"Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President (of Ukraine) is set up for a long war that volition concluding 2-3 years. Kiev does not consider a possible defeat on the eastern front to be critical for Ukraine,

the master affair is that the battles for Donbas exhaust the Russian army and last for several months. Using time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine volition receive mod heavy weapons and will exist able to launch a counteroffensive in the S of Ukraine."

In a recent interview on his youtube aqueduct, primary presidential advisor Arestovich openly confirms the to a higher place. In fact he plain tells host Feigin that with all the new NATO equipment coming in, it will accept them about 1 to 2 months max to arm a new army in the west, and that Ukraine will be gear up to create mass counter-offensives from the westward starting in mid to tardily June.

And then in curt, their unabridged strategy is to stall Russian forces in the eastward equally much equally possible by conducting boring, orderly retreats, fifty-fifty if it means eventually giving up the entire Donbas – in fact in the same interview Arestovich says that he fully expects Russia to encircle Kramatorsk/Slavyansk but that it volition turn into "another Mariupol", or so he hopes. And so past late June, even if Donbas is lost, they expect to be able to retake information technology with massive new Ukrainian offensives utilizing newly reconstituted reserves armed with full NATO arsenals, from German tanks to American F-16'southward and everything in between.

On the RF side, some already accuse them of heavy 'coping' and excuse making, where the narrative is now shifting from "we're winning in the Donbas" to "it'south ok if we lose the Donbas, we'll retake it later."

In fact Arestovich foresaw all of this, in his famously prescient 2017 interview he not only predicted the Russian war to happen around 2022, but he said there will exist at least ii wars, maybe iii, i following in effectually 2024, then another 2026+ or later. The reason existence is that, he foresaw a stalemate with Russia taking Donbas but being drained and depleted, forcing to compromise in a treaty that leaves western Ukraine. And so Ukraine would get armed to the teeth by NATO and a new state of war would take place a twelvemonth or ii after, similar to Chechnya i and 2 where Russia had to go in to end the job a second fourth dimension.

So this brings me to the consequence of military hardware and who is winning. The main problem for the Ukrainian side, is they rely entirely on the conventionalities (real or not) that they have endless reserves of manpower. Arestovich and others have said, "our problems are contrary, we have endless manpower but no equipment, and Russia has endless equipment simply not plenty manpower."

The chief trouble here is the blanket assumption that Ukraine has endless reserves and loftier remaining morale. Merely at that place is increasing evidence that this is not the case. Non only are mass surrenders increasing, but each fourth dimension they happen the troops complain of the same things, low morale, loftier desertion rates, resentment towards their commanders. And increasingly the troops are from the far west, old, and haggard which proves that Kiev is already tapping its accented reserves from the west of the country, rather than local reserves held back at iind and 3rd echelon lines like near Pavlograd, Poltava, etc.

Secondly, there is increasing discontent amongst the populace. Today in the far west city of Khust, where these reserves are already existence tapped every bit I simply outlined, the wives, mothers, and family of soldiers being sent to the front near rebelled and started destroying the local military offices, and this is becoming increasingly common:

https://www.bitchute.com/video/ysVLo8BLRqEi/

They don't want any more war.

I already reported last time how the 'k popular insurgence' that Zelensky promised (read: hoped for) of the molotov-armed partisans was a consummate failure. In fact now, more and more we're seeing secret pro-Russian secret resistance cells forming in all the major cities who have released videos and are promising to assistance have the city once Russia arrives. Such cells now exist in Kharkov, Nikolayev, Odessa, and elsewhere:

Odessa: https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1518408563458199552

Kharkov: https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/condition/1514086284628840449

And in Nikolayev, one report said: "Co-ordinate to available information, the elite of Nikolaev, businessmen, politicians, swain bandits, are negotiating with the Russian side on the bloodless give up of the city. Nobody wants to echo the case of Mariupol

They enquire for guarantees for the preservation of avails, business and participation in the political life of the city. At that place is a bargaining going on, while guarantees will not be provided to Kim, a different fate will await him."

Though this is speculative, nosotros know for a fact this very thing happened several times already, including a Kharkov mayor who was arrested for trying to peacefully hand over the city at the outset of the conflict.

Likewise, there is the belief that Ukraine maintains the giant pre-war numbers we were all given, just in fact information technology's been greatly hidden by the authorities what vast corporeality of people, especially armed forces-aged men, take fled the country or gone into hiding, refusing service.

According to the Russian MOD almost fifty,000 of AFU'south manpower has already been irrecoverably attritioned whether by KIA, MIA, WIA, Pw, etc.

This was posted on a Ukrainian account: "Colleagues, we published that the Kremlin handed over lists of POWs, of which at that place are more than than 4,000 one thousand. For the Part of the President, this is a large problem, which they will not exist able to go on silent virtually for a long fourth dimension, in Kiev they are now looking for a formula on how to submit data to the public. Surrender is becoming a mass phenomenon, because of some brigade commanders who simply throw the guys on the tanks, while they themselves are tens of kilometers away from the fighting. Indicative in this regard is the case of the 93rd brigade, our soldiers got into a tactical encirclement , because of the tyranny of the command, and no 1 comes to their help."

Arestovich spoke on this in his newest interview where he said in that location has been a trouble of mass morale loss of soldiers calling their relatives and saying that everything has gone to hell, but of course he continues to say that these soldiers are playing into the hands of Russian propaganda.

Today's newest report is that thou AFU soldiers are now surrounded and trapped in Oskil, pushed against the bank of the Donetsk river without any vehicles to cross it. This could soon bring another 1000 POWs besides as the 2000 that will soon come from Azovstal.

Ukraine is losing 300-400 men per twenty-four hour period to KIA and Pow alone.

From RF MOD: "Losses of the Ukrainian side as a event of a special armed forces operation of the RF Armed forces on Apr xxx, 2022

▪️During the day, the War machine of Ukraine lost 556 people killed, wounded and captured. The total loss of killed, wounded and captured in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, NSU and State Border Service is over 47 thousand people.

▪️According to the internal study of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 6 tanks, 39 armored vehicles, 21 field artillery and mortars, 7 MLRS, 25 vehicles and special equipment and 23 UAVs were lost."

Just look at today's newest graphic losses (eighteen+++):

https://world wide web.bitchute.com/video/pL8UgfljAlUc/

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian side continues to rely heavily on the belief that Russia is simply being attritioned faster, and this is what will atomic number 82 to victory. Bellingcat reports that Russian federation has used upwardly lxx% of all its missiles. Even so, commentators were rapidly to point out the post-obit inconvenient fact:

The 2nd in control of Bellingcat said Russian federation would "collapse" by the coming Dominicus, on March 4th.

The fact of the thing is, 50k of the AFU are gone, some other 50k are trapped in Donbass and are slowly being grinded down. Millions have fled the country (Russia has taken i+ one thousand thousand refugees lone, and much more went west, to europe and elsewhere) so nosotros can look that the vast majority of the fighting age males take left or gone underground.

Based on what we're seeing on the frontlines, the virtually afar reserves already beingness used and depleted, the riots of family members in western Ukraine proving their last reserves are already being tapped, one can simply conclude that Ukraine will not have anywhere about the numbers of fighters left to arm with all the incoming 'NATO toys'.

On that note, read this illuminating new frontline report from a highly respected source, the famous Serb fighter in the Donbas, Dejan Beric (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dejan_Berić)

In brusk, the public is at present being conditioned to motility the goalposts such that losing Donbas no longer means a loss in the war, but is just a momentary strategic retreat until the mighty NATO wunderwaffens from the Westward allow the AFU to strike back with a vengeance.

Last time I reported the bridge existence diddled in Slavyansk, pictured with the imperial circumvolve on the left:

At present they've blown the span fifty-fifty further e (red circle) in preparation for the coming reality.

And strangely, U.S. officials are now claiming Russia is just "days" behind schedule in Donbas, when previously it was weeks if non months.

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1520081100021850117

And finally, reports at present bespeak that the British look Putin to formally declare state of war on Ukraine on May nineth and begin mass mobilization.

"The British Ministry of Defence force has reportedly seen indications that Russian President Putin is preparing a Statement for May 9th during the Victory Parade in Moscow, which is expected a General Mobilization and a Declaration of State of war against Ukraine volition be declared."

https://world wide web.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10766541/Ben-Wallace-predicts-Russia-use-parade-nine-denote-mass-mobilisation-population.html

Of course this could be complete nonsense and propaganda on their behalf, or it could be some other case of predictive programming, self-fulfilling fantasy. Merely like when they 'predicted' Russia would invade in february but in actuality pushed Ukraine to bring a massive regular army to the Donbas contact line, start shelling Donbas and Russian territory in lodge to force Russia to invade, hither may be the same state of affairs. This could exist a sign that they program to massively escalate by invading Transnistria (and perhaps western Ukraine) and forcing Putin to mobilize so they tin can over again merits information technology was Russia's program to do it on the heroic May 9thursday all forth.

In fact MSM is already conditioning the public with what a response might expect like to Russian nuclear utilise:

To conclude, we see that Ukraine's strategy is to try to bleed Russia in Donbas as much as possible before the eventual collapse and pull out, and then 'promise' for huge amounts of reserves in the far west of the state to remain then they tin exist armed with NATO wunderwaffen for a big summer blockbuster Barbarossa offensive to unironically first by June 22.

By NATO's own admission that they are ready to supply and stand with Ukraine for a war lasting "3 to 10 years", we can infer that they understand Russia is in fact not running out of anything (exist it manpower or supplies) any time soon, and that the war volition in fact be long – the rest is only propaganda for public consumption.

There'southward no more than room for at present to comprehend the likelihood or probability of any of these plans to work, maybe next time. But for now I'll leave you with one final stomach-turning story. In Hostomel, virtually Kiev, a Ukrainian video influencer decided to go out to i of the wrecked tanks, and found himself some remains of a 'expressionless Russian soldier', which he decided to cook and eat to great internet acclaim in his country.

(18+) for anyone with the stomach to watch:

https://www.bitchute.com/video/eTs1yUPCio7D/

https://sputniknews.com/20220427/hitting-a-new-low-ukrainian-man-posts-video-boasting-of-eating-russian-soldiers-meat-1095108054.html

Now whether this is a staged 'stunt' or non, the fact of the affair is on social media he was said to have gotten greatly positive feedback from many Ukrainians who urged others to become out and cannibalize expressionless Russian soldiers. This is but an insightful look into Ukrainian society and their inculcated, absolute inhuman hatred of Russians.

And of class in that location'south the unfortunate fact that experts accept adamant without a shadow of a doubt that the tank from which he foraged his unholy delicacy was in fact a Ukrainian T-64 (and not a Russian T-72), a tank Russia does not use (nor was DPR/LPR anywhere near Hostomel at any time).

You tin can draw the conclusions to what this ways for the poor, attention-seeking, self-avowed cannibal.

The Essential Saker IV: Messianic Narcissism's Agony by a Thousand Cuts

The Essential Saker 4: Messianic Narcissism'due south Desperation by a Thousand Cuts

The Essential Saker II

The Essential Saker Three: Chronicling The Tragedy, Farce And Collapse of the Empire in the Era of Mr MAGA